Recent market movements have exposed Ethereum (ETH) to significant selling pressure, leading to a 23% decline and bringing its price to yearly lows at $2,200. One of the major concerns for investors is the ongoing underperformance of ETH compared to Bitcoin, a trend that has been persistent since September 2022. Ethereum has fallen by 44% against Bitcoin since then, leaving many investors and traders questioning the reasons behind its struggle.
A recent report from CryptoQuant sheds some light on the factors that may be influencing ETH’s performance. One of the key contributors to Ethereum’s struggles is the declining on-chain activity. The total transaction fees on the Ethereum network have been decreasing, mainly due to lower fees after the Dencun upgrade. Additionally, the relative transaction count has seen a dramatic drop, falling from a record high of 27 in June 2021 to 11, one of the lowest levels since July 2020.
Another factor impacting Ethereum’s underperformance is the shrinking institutional interest in the asset. Ethereum ETFs have been underperforming compared to Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC pair now sitting at 0.0425, its lowest level since April 2021. This lack of institutional interest could be contributing to the overall negative sentiment surrounding Ethereum.
Ethereum’s supply dynamics are also not conducive to a price increase. Since the Dencun upgrade in early April, the total supply of ETH has been steadily growing, currently at 120.323 million ETH, the highest level since May 2023. This increase in supply could be putting downward pressure on Ethereum’s price, making it harder for the asset to gain momentum.
Moreover, traders and investors have shown a clear preference for Bitcoin over Ethereum in recent weeks. The relative spot trading volume of ETH to Bitcoin has dropped from 1.6 to 0.76 in the past week, indicating that traders are favoring Bitcoin over Ethereum. Historically, Ethereum’s price has risen relative to Bitcoin when its trading volume outperforms Bitcoin’s. However, with the current disparity in trading volume, it is likely that Ethereum will continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin in the near future.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,262, well below its 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) at $2,565. The failure to break above this critical indicator could signal a further decline in price, potentially pushing Ethereum into a deeper correction phase. Bulls need to regain control by breaking above the 200 MA and challenging local highs at $2,600 to prevent Ethereum from slipping into a prolonged bearish trend.
The $2,200 level is crucial for Ethereum’s short-term recovery, as failing to hold support at this level could trigger more selling pressure and potentially mark the beginning of a bear market for the asset. It is essential for market participants to monitor Ethereum’s movements closely in the coming weeks to determine whether the asset can regain momentum or if further downside is to be expected.
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